The Former President's Ukraine Peace Proposal Constitutes a Benefit to Russia's Leader

For a brief period, the former US president gave the impression to embrace a resolute approach on Ukraine. After issuing threats of "significant ramifications" in August in case Vladimir Putin carried on hindering peace negotiations, the former president eventually imposed substantial penalties on Russia's primary oil companies, these major energy companies. This move seriously impacted Putin's capacity to support his war effort in the region.

However, via his newly presented 28-point peace plan for the conflict, which was drafted by both nations' diplomats excluding Ukraine's or European participation, Trump has clearly returned to his pro-Putin approach.

Favoring Aggression

The former president's plan would essentially benefit Putin for attacking Ukraine while putting the country's democracy in peril. Despite strong statements that "Ukraine's independence will be confirmed", significant aspects of the initiative effectively undermine that same autonomy. This constitutes a Kremlin dream would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Showing his real-estate past, the former president continues to consider the situation in Ukraine as a basic territorial dispute, as if ceding Russia a part of Ukraine's soil will appease the ruler. However, Russia's war is not only about occupying a charred region of economically weakened land in the Donbas region. Rather, it is about Ukraine's political system – and Putin's obvious goal to destroy it so it stops acts as an attractive example for the Russian people of the responsible government that Putin's increasing authoritarian rule withholds them.

Border Concessions

Although keeping in place the presently split oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's initiative would compel the nation to abandon the entire Donetsk province. Aside from benefiting Russia with land that its forces have been unsuccessful to capture in over a lengthy period of conflict, this concession would make Ukrainian defenses dangerously compromised.

This region is the location of the nation's much-vaunted "stronghold system", the fortified defensive positions that constitute a key barrier to invading forces. The proposal would have Ukraine leave these defenses, giving Russian forces a clear way to the capital if he later choose to restart the hostilities.

Armed Forces Restrictions

Furthermore, in a move that would facilitate future hostilities simpler for Russia, Trump would mandate Ukraine to reduce the size of its military from their present large number personnel to a cap of 600,000. Importantly, Trump's proposal imposes no similar constraints on the invading army.

Apparently as a concession to Putin's campaign to characterize Ukraine's chosen by the people leadership as radicals, Trump's proposal asserts: "All extremist ideology and activities must be rejected and prohibited." Seemingly to emphasize this element, it demands that "The nation will hold democratic votes in this period" of a truce. At the same time, the proposal imposes no condition that the Russian leader endanger his dictatorship by allowing democratic processes in Russia.

Protection Assurances

To be sure, the plan has the Russian Federation commit not to "enter other states" and to "establish in law its position of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine". Yet taking into account that Putin has violated comparable agreements in the previous instances – for example the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government pledged to respect the nation's territorial integrity in return for surrendering its historical nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow agreed to a truce and a handback of seized territory in eastern Ukraine to the government – why should anyone have confidence in Putin now?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on external protection assurances. Although the plan warns of a "strong coordinated defense action" in case the Russian Federation renew its aggression, and states that "Ukraine will receive strong security guarantees", the details vary from vague to concerning. The proposal would not just deny Ukraine alliance membership but also prevent Nato members from deploying forces on Ukraine's soil, effectively preventing the peacekeeping contingent, presumptively led by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been relying to stop Russia from restoring his weakened forces, rearming, and reinvading.

International Reaction

Another side agreement apparently would grant Ukraine with a alliance-like protection assurance, in which any subsequent "major, deliberate, and ongoing armed attack" by Russia on the country "would be considered as an act of war threatening the stability and safety of the allied countries." This indicates a armed reaction. But different from a strong Ukrainian military – the nation's most reliable defense against renewed invasion – the success of the parallel accord would rely on the commitment of alliance members, like the US administration, to react with force to Putin's attacks, something they have {not