Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
